Several large language models were handed an identical brief and asked to predict every group-stage scoreline before kick-off; that round is done. They're now predicting the knockout rounds as the bracket resolves, currently the Round of 32. Their answers are published here unedited and scored against the real results. None of them have seen a football.
Archived: Group stage
| Model | Scored | Exact | Winner | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Human 1.0 (One football fan) | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
3 pts exact 90-min score · 2 pts correct winner · 0 for the wrong winner — knockout matches can't draw
Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. For the winner pick, a drawn scoreline goes to the higher-ranked side. (generated 2026-06-10)
Weighted final group standings heavily for clear mismatches (winners vs third-placed sides) and leaned on goal difference, goals conceded, and knockout pedigree for the closer runner-up/third-placed ties. Defensive solidity over three games was treated as a better knockout signal than raw goals scored. (generated 2026-06-28)
Weighted group-stage points/GF-GA as primary signal, adjusted for historical knockout pedigree and squad depth where group performance was close. (generated 2026-06-28)
I weighted the completed group-stage performances most heavily, especially points, goal difference and attacking/defensive balance, then adjusted for historical knockout pedigree, overall squad quality and the likelihood of tighter knockout matches. (generated 2026-06-28)
Predictions are primarily driven by goal difference and defensive stability from the group stage, weighted alongside historical knockout experience and squad depth to project winners and 90-minute scorelines. (generated 2026-06-28)
Predictions are weighted heavily on recent 2026 group-stage form (points, goal difference, and goals scored), balanced against historical knockout-round pedigree and squad depth. (generated 2026-06-28)
Picks made after seeing the full group stage; no separate prediction made for extra time or penalties, just the 90-minute winner and score. (generated 2026-06-28)
■ exact ■ winner ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on winner
| Date | Fixture | Actual | Ranking Bot | Claude Opus 4.8 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Gemini 3.5 Flash | Human 1.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 15:00 | RSA v CAN | 0-1 FT | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| 2026-06-29 13:00 | BRA v JPN | 2-1 FT | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| 2026-06-29 16:30 | GER v PAR | 1-1 (pens 3-4, PAR won) | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| 2026-06-29 21:00 | NED v MAR | 1-1 (pens 2-3, MAR won) | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-06-30 13:00 | ◆ CIV v NOR | 1-2 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| 2026-06-30 17:00 | FRA v SWE | 3-0 FT | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| 2026-06-30 21:00 | MEX v ECU | 2-0 FT | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-01 12:00 | ENG v COD | 2026-07-01 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-01 16:00 | ◆ BEL v SEN | 2026-07-01 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-01 20:00 | USA v BIH | 2026-07-01 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| 2026-07-02 15:00 | ESP v AUT | 2026-07-02 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 2026-07-02 19:00 | ◆ POR v CRO | 2026-07-02 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-02 23:00 | SUI v ALG | 2026-07-02 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-2 |
| 2026-07-03 14:00 | ◆ AUS v EGY | 2026-07-03 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-07-03 18:00 | ARG v CPV | 2026-07-03 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| 2026-07-03 21:30 | COL v GHA | 2026-07-03 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |