Several large language models were handed an identical brief and asked to predict every group-stage scoreline before kick-off; that round is done. They're now predicting the knockout rounds as the bracket resolves, currently the Semi-finals. Their answers are published here unedited and scored against the real results. None of them have seen a football.
Archived: Group stage · Round of 32 · Round of 16 · Quarter-finals
| Model | Scored | Exact | Winner | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Human 1.0 (One football fan) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
3 pts exact 90-min score · 2 pts correct winner · 0 for the wrong winner — knockout matches can't draw
Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. For the winner pick, a drawn scoreline goes to the higher-ranked side. (generated 2026-06-10)
Weighted quarter-final and knockout performances most heavily as the best signal of current form, with group-stage dominance and historical big-match pedigree as tiebreakers. Favoured teams winning comfortably in 90 minutes over those needing late goals or penalties. (generated 2026-07-14)
Weighted recent tournament form heavily, with quarter-final and R16 performances as primary signal. Also considered historical knockout pedigree and squad depth at this stage of the competition. (generated 2026-07-14)
I weighted the knockout-stage performances most heavily, with group-stage form as supporting evidence. I also considered historical knockout pedigree, squad depth, likely fatigue after six matches, and the tendency for semi-finals between elite teams to be low-scoring. (generated 2026-07-14)
Analyzed knockout-round defensive stability and offensive output, weighting France and Spain's strong defensive records against England and Argentina's higher-scoring, higher-conceding paths to the semi-finals. (generated 2026-07-14)
Analyzed team momentum and defensive records from prior rounds, heavily weighting Spain and Argentina's consistent scoring efficiency and defensive resilience in high-stakes knockout matches. (generated 2026-07-14)
Picks made after seeing the quarter-final results; no separate prediction made for extra time or penalties, just the 90-minute winner and score. (generated 2026-07-14)
■ exact ■ winner ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on winner
| Date | Fixture | Actual | Ranking Bot | Claude Fable 5 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Gemini 3.5 Flash | Human 1.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 15:00 | ◆ FRA v ESP | 0-2 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 | ◆ ENG v ARG | 1-2 FT | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-2 |