OMGMOG AIWC26 --- -- --- --:--/--

AI vs AI World Cup 2026 sweepstake

Several large language models were handed an identical brief and asked to predict every group-stage scoreline before kick-off. Their answers are published here unedited and scored against the real results. None of them have seen a football.

League table

ModelScoredExactResultPts
Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) 0 0 0 0
Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic) 0 0 0 0
Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) 0 0 0 0
GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) 0 0 0 0
Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) 0 0 0 0
Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) 0 0 0 0

3 pts exact score · 1 pt correct result · 0 otherwise

Ranking Bot — method

Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. (generated 2026-06-10)

Claude Fable 5 — method

Weighted blend of FIFA ranking (Apr 2026), qualifying and recent tournament form, squad depth and key-player club seasons, plus host/venue effects. Scores are modal outcomes, not expected goals. (generated 2026-06-10)

Claude Sonnet 4.6 — method

Predictions blend historical World Cup pedigree, 2024-26 qualifying/continental form, squad quality, and host/altitude context, leaning toward favorites winning narrowly (1-2 goal margins) while predicting draws for closely matched pairings and allowing for plausible upsets among debutant nations. (generated 2026-06-10)

GPT-5.5 — method

Predictions balance long-term World Cup strength, recent tournament and qualifying form, projected 2026 squads, host effects, and likely tactical matchups. Scorelines represent the single most likely full-time outcome rather than expected-goals averages. (generated 2026-06-10)

Gemini 3.1 Pro — method

Predictions synthesize historical Elo ratings, recent continental tournament form, and venue advantages for North American host nations. Baseline scoreline probabilities were adjusted based on squad depth, tactical matchups, and key player form during the 2025-26 club season. (generated 2026-06-11)

Gemini 3.5 Flash — method

Predictions are calculated based on historic tournament pedigrees, historical host advantages, recent qualification data, and current squad strength for the 2026 cycle. (generated 2026-06-11)

Note: Gemini's predictions were regenerated on 11 June 2026 after it misreported its own model version.

Fixtures & predictions

■ exact ■ result ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on result

Group A

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
A1 MEX v RSA 2026-06-11 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
◆ A2 KOR v CZE v 2-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1
◆ A3 MEX v KOR v 2-1 2-1 2-1 1-1 2-1 2-1
A4 CZE v RSA v 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-0 2-0 2-0
◆ A5 CZE v MEX v 1-2 0-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1
A6 RSA v KOR v 1-2 0-2 1-2 0-1 0-2 0-2

Group B

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
◆ B1 CAN v SUI v 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-2
◆ B2 QAT v BIH v 2-1 0-1 1-2 1-1 1-0 0-1
B3 CAN v QAT v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
B4 BIH v SUI v 1-2 0-2 1-2 0-1 0-2 1-2
◆ B5 BIH v CAN v 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-2 1-1
B6 SUI v QAT v 2-1 3-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 3-0

Group C

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
◆ C1 BRA v MAR v 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-1
C2 HAI v SCO v 1-2 0-1 0-2 0-2 0-3 0-2
C3 BRA v HAI v 2-1 3-0 4-0 4-0 4-0 4-0
◆ C4 SCO v MAR v 1-2 0-2 1-1 1-1 0-1 1-2
C5 SCO v BRA v 1-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-3
C6 MAR v HAI v 2-1 3-0 3-0 2-0 3-0 3-0

Group D

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
D1 USA v PAR 2026-06-12 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-0
◆ D2 AUS v TUR v 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-2 0-2 1-2
D3 USA v AUS v 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-1 2-1
◆ D4 TUR v PAR v 2-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-0
◆ D5 TUR v USA v 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1
◆ D6 PAR v AUS v 1-2 1-0 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-1

Group E

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
E1 GER v CUW v 2-1 3-0 4-0 3-0 4-0 4-0
◆ E2 CIV v ECU v 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1
E3 GER v CIV v 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1
E4 ECU v CUW v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 3-0 3-0
◆ E5 ECU v GER v 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 1-2
E6 CUW v CIV v 1-2 0-2 0-2 1-2 0-2 0-2

Group F

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
◆ F1 NED v JPN v 2-1 2-1 2-1 1-1 2-1 2-1
◆ F2 SWE v TUN v 1-1 1-0 2-1 1-0 1-0 2-0
◆ F3 NED v SWE v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-1 2-0 1-1
F4 TUN v JPN v 1-2 0-2 0-1 0-1 0-2 0-2
F5 TUN v NED v 1-2 0-3 0-2 0-2 0-3 0-2
◆ F6 JPN v SWE v 2-1 2-1 2-1 1-0 1-1 2-1

Group G

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
G1 BEL v EGY v 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-1
G2 IRN v NZL v 2-1 2-0 2-0 1-0 1-0 2-0
G3 BEL v IRN v 2-1 2-0 2-0 1-0 3-0 1-0
G4 NZL v EGY v 1-2 0-2 0-2 0-1 0-1 0-2
G5 NZL v BEL v 1-2 0-3 0-3 0-2 0-4 0-3
G6 EGY v IRN v 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1

Group H

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
H1 ESP v CPV v 2-1 4-0 3-0 3-0 3-0 3-0
H2 KSA v URU v 1-2 0-2 1-2 1-2 0-2 0-2
H3 ESP v KSA v 2-1 3-0 3-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
H4 URU v CPV v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 3-1
◆ H5 URU v ESP v 1-2 0-2 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-1
◆ H6 CPV v KSA v 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-2

Group I

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
I1 FRA v SEN v 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-1
I2 IRQ v NOR v 1-2 0-2 0-2 1-2 0-2 0-2
I3 FRA v IRQ v 2-1 3-0 3-0 3-0 3-0 3-0
◆ I4 NOR v SEN v 1-2 2-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1
◆ I5 NOR v FRA v 1-2 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-2
I6 SEN v IRQ v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0

Group J

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
J1 ARG v AUT v 2-1 2-0 2-1 2-0 3-0 2-0
J2 ALG v JOR v 2-1 1-0 2-0 1-0 2-0 2-0
J3 ARG v ALG v 2-1 2-0 2-1 2-0 2-0 3-1
J4 JOR v AUT v 1-2 0-2 0-2 1-2 0-2 0-2
J5 JOR v ARG v 1-2 0-3 0-3 0-2 0-4 0-4
◆ J6 AUT v ALG v 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-0

Group K

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
◆ K1 POR v COL v 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 2-1 2-1
◆ K2 COD v UZB v 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-0 1-1
K3 POR v COD v 2-1 3-0 2-0 2-0 3-0 3-0
K4 UZB v COL v 1-2 0-2 0-2 1-2 0-2 0-2
K5 UZB v POR v 1-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-3 0-2
K6 COL v COD v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0

Group L

FixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 Flash
◆ L1 ENG v CRO v 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-1
◆ L2 PAN v GHA v 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 1-2
L3 ENG v PAN v 2-1 3-0 2-0 3-0 3-0 3-0
◆ L4 GHA v CRO v 1-2 0-2 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-2
L5 GHA v ENG v 1-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2
L6 CRO v PAN v 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0