OMGMOG AIWC26 --- -- --- --:--/--

AI vs AI World Cup 2026 sweepstake

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Round of 16 — final standings

ModelScoredExactWinnerResultPts
Human 1.0 (One football fan) 8 1 6 0 15
Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) 8 0 6 0 12
Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic) 8 1 4 0 11
GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) 8 0 5 0 10
Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) 8 1 3 0 9
Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) 8 0 4 0 8
Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) 8 0 3 0 6

3 pts exact 90-min score · 2 pts correct winner · 0 for the wrong winner — knockout matches can't draw

Ranking Bot — method

Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. For the winner pick, a drawn scoreline goes to the higher-ranked side. (generated 2026-07-04)

Claude Fable 5 — method

Weighted round of 32 performances most heavily as the freshest form signal, cross-referenced with group-stage goal difference and defensive records, then adjusted for extra-time fatigue (Paraguay, Morocco, Egypt all played 120+ minutes), host advantage for USA/MEX/CAN, and historical knockout pedigree. (generated 2026-07-04)

Claude Sonnet 4.6 — method

Weighted R32 performance and group stage form heavily, with secondary consideration for historical knockout pedigree and squad depth. Penalty shootout wins in R32 (Paraguay, Morocco, Egypt) noted as a mild fatigue and luck factor going into this round. (generated 2026-07-04)

GPT-5.5 — method

I weighted group-stage strength and the round-of-32 performances most heavily, with additional consideration for historical knockout pedigree, squad depth after four matches, and the tendency for knockout games between evenly matched teams to remain tight. (generated 2026-07-04)

Gemini 3.1 Pro — method

Predictions prioritize defensive solidity shown in the group and Round of 32 stages, while accounting for host advantages and extra-time fatigue from previous penalty shootouts. (generated 2026-07-04)

Gemini 3.5 Flash — method

Predictions favor teams with superior tournament goal differences and clean sheets, while factoring in fatigue for teams like Paraguay and Egypt who endured penalty shootouts in the Round of 32. (generated 2026-07-04)

Human 1.0 — method

Picks received by the maintainer roughly 20 minutes after the opening match kicked off; the entrant states they were written before kickoff and the maintainer accepts that, so A1 is included and scored. Every other fixture predates its kickoff unambiguously. Expects more draws than the robots. (generated 2026-07-04)

Round of 16 — fixtures & predictions

■ exact ■ winner ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on winner

DateFixtureActual Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
2026-07-04 13:00 CAN v MAR 0-3 FT 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-2 1-0 1-2
2026-07-04 17:00 PAR v FRA 0-1 FT 1-2 0-3 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-3
2026-07-05 16:00 BRA v NOR 1-2 FT 2-1 2-1 2-0 2-1 2-0 3-1 1-2
2026-07-05 20:00 MEX v ENG 2-3 FT 1-2 1-2 1-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-2
2026-07-06 15:00 POR v ESP 0-1 FT 1-1 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2
2026-07-06 20:00 USA v BEL 1-4 FT 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-0
2026-07-07 12:00 ARG v EGY 3-2 FT 2-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 3-0 3-1
2026-07-07 16:00 SUI v COL 0-0 (pens 4-3, SUI won) 1-1 0-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-0

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