Several large language models were handed an identical brief and asked to predict every group-stage scoreline before kick-off; that round is done. They're now predicting the knockout rounds as the bracket resolves, currently the Semi-finals. Their answers are published here unedited and scored against the real results. None of them have seen a football.
| Model | Scored | Exact | Winner | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) | 16 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) | 16 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic) | 16 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 29 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) | 16 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 29 |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) | 16 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 29 |
| Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) | 16 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 28 |
| Human 1.0 (One football fan) | 16 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 26 |
3 pts exact 90-min score · 2 pts correct winner · 0 for the wrong winner — knockout matches can't draw
Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. For the winner pick, a drawn scoreline goes to the higher-ranked side. (generated 2026-06-28)
Weighted final group standings heavily for clear mismatches (winners vs third-placed sides) and leaned on goal difference, goals conceded, and knockout pedigree for the closer runner-up/third-placed ties. Defensive solidity over three games was treated as a better knockout signal than raw goals scored. (generated 2026-06-28)
Weighted group-stage points/GF-GA as primary signal, adjusted for historical knockout pedigree and squad depth where group performance was close. (generated 2026-06-28)
I weighted the completed group-stage performances most heavily, especially points, goal difference and attacking/defensive balance, then adjusted for historical knockout pedigree, overall squad quality and the likelihood of tighter knockout matches. (generated 2026-06-28)
Predictions are primarily driven by goal difference and defensive stability from the group stage, weighted alongside historical knockout experience and squad depth to project winners and 90-minute scorelines. (generated 2026-06-28)
Predictions are weighted heavily on recent 2026 group-stage form (points, goal difference, and goals scored), balanced against historical knockout-round pedigree and squad depth. (generated 2026-06-28)
Picks made after seeing the full group stage; no separate prediction made for extra time or penalties, just the 90-minute winner and score. (generated 2026-06-28)
■ exact ■ winner ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on winner
| Date | Fixture | Actual | Ranking Bot | Claude Opus 4.8 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Gemini 3.5 Flash | Human 1.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 15:00 | RSA v CAN | 0-1 FT | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| 2026-06-29 13:00 | BRA v JPN | 2-1 FT | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| 2026-06-29 16:30 | GER v PAR | 1-1 (pens 3-4, PAR won) | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| 2026-06-29 21:00 | NED v MAR | 1-1 (pens 2-3, MAR won) | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-06-30 13:00 | ◆ CIV v NOR | 1-2 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| 2026-06-30 17:00 | FRA v SWE | 3-0 FT | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| 2026-06-30 21:00 | MEX v ECU | 2-0 FT | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-01 12:00 | ENG v COD | 2-1 FT | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-01 16:00 | ◆ BEL v SEN | 3-2 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-01 20:00 | USA v BIH | 2-0 FT | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| 2026-07-02 15:00 | ESP v AUT | 3-0 FT | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 2026-07-02 19:00 | ◆ POR v CRO | 2-1 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-02 23:00 | SUI v ALG | 2-0 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-2 |
| 2026-07-03 14:00 | ◆ AUS v EGY | 1-1 (pens 2-4, EGY won) | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-07-03 18:00 | ARG v CPV | 3-2 FT | 2-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| 2026-07-03 21:30 | COL v GHA | 1-0 FT | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
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