| Model | Scored | Exact | Winner | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Ranking Bot (FIFA rankings + one rule) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Human 1.0 (One football fan) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
3 pts exact 90-min score · 2 pts correct winner · 0 for the wrong winner — knockout matches can't draw
Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. For the winner pick, a drawn scoreline goes to the higher-ranked side. (generated 2026-06-10)
Weighted knockout results most heavily, then group-stage defensive records as a fatigue-resistant signal five matches in, with historical knockout pedigree as a tiebreaker. Penalised teams whose wins have come with high goals-against totals. (generated 2026-07-08)
Weighted recent tournament form heavily, particularly knockout-round results and margin of victory. Also considered historical pedigree, squad fatigue across five matches, and head-to-head patterns where relevant. (generated 2026-07-08)
I weighted the tournament results above most heavily, then adjusted for historical knockout pedigree, squad depth after five matches, and the quality of opponents each team has eliminated. Upsets already achieved were respected but not assumed to continue indefinitely. (generated 2026-07-08)
Weighted recent knockout stage form heavily, favoring teams with strong defensive records like Spain and France, while considering Argentina and England's superior attacking depth despite recent defensive vulnerabilities. (generated 2026-07-08)
Predictions were generated by analyzing current momentum from the knockout stages, defensive resilience, and historical tournament pedigree, prioritizing 90-minute goal-scoring trends while accounting for extra-time potential. (generated 2026-07-08)
Picks made after seeing the full group stage; no separate prediction made for extra time or penalties, just the 90-minute winner and score. (generated 2026-07-08)
■ exact ■ winner ■ wrong ■ awaiting result ◆ models split on winner
| Date | Fixture | Actual | Ranking Bot | Claude Fable 5 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | GPT-5.5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Gemini 3.5 Flash | Human 1.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 16:00 | FRA v MAR | 2-0 FT | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-10 15:00 | ESP v BEL | 2-1 FT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-07-11 17:00 | NOR v ENG | 1-2 FT | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-11 21:00 | ARG v SUI | 3-1 FT | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
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